Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Zero Population Growth...

Say what? Oh yeah, I went there. This one is for my peeps (leslie, I'm winking at you!)...

So, ground rules and basic important statements:

  • I am not--in any way--telling people what they should/should not do.
  • I merely trying to foster an interesting and important discussion.
  • I am NOT an expert on this topic. I am posting my initial thoughts, but am positive that there will be many points which others think of that I have not...so let me know what I miss.
  • I know many fantastic parents of larger families (with 4+ children)--I am in NO way saying that they shouldn't have had their kids. I am not criticizing them in any way. Again--this topic is to spur healthy discussion NOT to offend anyone.
  • I also know an increasing number of couples who have chosen not to have any children...and they are happy fulfilled individuals.
  • I absolutely welcome comments to this post, so feel free to join in the discussion as long as it is in a respectful manner.

What is Zero Population Growth?...Well, it has a longer explanation--but I'm condensing it down to the bare bones: Birth rate equals death rate. There are a lot of factors that make up or effect both of these rates. Education, economy, health care...are just a few of the many factors.


So why am I even mentioning the concept of zero population growth? You can only fit so many nails in a piece of wood before it splits into a bazillion splinters...the same concept is true of the Earth and how many people it can hold/sustain. In 1999, our planet passed the 6 BILLION person mark. By 2050, we are expected to top 9 billion...and China is NOT predicted to be the most populated country at that time! India is currently hot on China's heals and by that time is predicted to overtake China's population. Have you compared the land mass of China to that of India lately? Go do it right now...I'll wait...no really I have time...don't lie to me...you didn't check...fine, but you're only hurting yourself by not looking it up... China is WAY larger than India...and India is going to be the most populous country? I don't mean to be an Alarmist Annie, but that doesn't sound like a good thing.


Let's start with the basics...food...how will we as a planet feed everyone? People are already starving to death...should we just add a couple more billion people then? This is a point of debate as many believe that we produce enough food on the planet to feed everyone--we just aren't able to get the food to the needy people due to politics, economy, etc. Regardless, no one can dispute the fact that people are starving everyday. Next...water...clean, potable water...where are we going to get it? In America and Canada we turn on our faucets and let it flow, but in Africa and other parts of the world--people travel miles to bring back drinkable/usable water every single day. Most of the Earth might be made up of water, but most of that water is salt water. Desalination is costly--not just monetarily but also due to the energy/resources it takes to desalinate the water. Third basic point--how do we dispose of the human waste? According to an article I read today on CNN.com, handling waste and the public health issues of not properly handling waste is the biggest problem that we will face in rapidly growing urban areas in the developing world. This means a huge potential for the spread of disease. A fourth point would be the drain on resources worldwide...wood for furniture, metal for tools, coal/wood/whatever for cooking and heating, cotton/hemp for clothing, etc. More people means more drain on these resources...prices skyrocket...resources become scarce.


So what do we do to stop this runaway train? Well...some people think that zero population growth is the answer or at least part of the answer. That means birth control would need to be made accessible--possibly free--especially to the poor. It's not fair/right to say "no money for birth control, no sex"...you can't make having sex or having children a right exclusive to the rich. Education...if I've quoted School House Rock once, I've quoted it a thousand times "Knowledge is Power"! The old wives' tales need to be put to rest. You CAN get pregnant when you're breastfeeding. You CAN get pregnant the first time you have sex. Taking a bath immediately after sex will NOT keep you from getting pregnant...etc.


Now I'm really going into some touchy territory...maybe some people should choose not to have biological children at all... Many thousands of children all over the world are in orphanages and foster care...they need parents...they need protection, love, care, education...basically they need a real chance at survival. A man I work with just became a first-time grandparent when his son and daughter-in-law traveled to Vietnam to adopt a beautiful baby girl...not because they couldn't have biological children, but because they felt it was the right choice for them to adopt. Step-parenting is another way to become a parent...My husband is not my daughters' "biological father", but he is EVERY bit their father. He gets upset when anyone dares to mention that they "aren't his real kids". He and I have chosen not to have biological children together, but he doesn't feel as if he is "missing out" on anything. He is just as much of a parent as I am...in fact, sometimes he is a far better one! Other people may choose not to become parents at all--and that is perfectly acceptable too! Although having a child can be wonderful--it is not for everyone. I highly respect those people who are honest enough to say "No, I don't think becoming a parent is right for me" for whatever reason.


I'm sure that I'm missing a whole bunch of good points and great information that should have made it into this post...I've been ruminating over this topic and trying to get this post written for almost a week now...finally, I just sat down and pounded out what was in the forefront of my brain...After re-reading what I've written, I now realize that I've almost exclusively addressed controlling the birth rate and really haven't touched on the death rate at all. The two need to be equal to achieve zero population growth. However, I do not advocate war, mass killings, fatal epidemics, smoking or poor health care...so that pretty much leaves me with the concept of controlling the birth rate as it (in my mind) is by far the most humane option.


Well, am I just some wacko nut case with a weird birth control fetish?...Does any of this make sense to anyone besides myself?

72 comments:

Burbanmom said...

Duckster,

Damn, you're one brave bitch for even broaching the subject! ;-)

I don't think setting limits on individuals is the answer. China showed us that with their increase in the abortion rates of female fetuses. HOWEVER, I think you hit two HUGE points with:

EDUCATION
FREE BIRTH CONTROL (including after-the-fact-meds and procedures)

If you could somehow manage to incorporate those two ideas WORLDWIDE, you would pretty much eliminate the orphanage issue (except in the case of death of parents).

Again, talking off the top of my head here. Probably wrong, as is usually the case.

Great topic, though! You're right. Our planet simply cannot sustain the growth of humans.

organicneedle said...

Hi Ducky. Thanks again for your support.:)

This is such a tough one. Good topic though. One major block to the whole birth control issue is religion. The poorer the country...the stronger the hold religion seems to have on it. People get really touchy when you start implying that there may be something fundamentally wrong with most major faiths' approaches to the whole subject of sex & birth control.

Another major issue is that it is VERY difficult to adopt all of these children that are waiting for loving homes in other countries. I have a friend who cannot conceive and she is on several waiting lists for the opportunity to adopt. Cost- $30-50,000. Plus, most countries require you stay in their country for a period of months to make sure you are in fact a legitimate human being and not a sex trafficker. (Doesn't it make you want to puke just knowing that has to be factored in.) Not to mention, only countries that are on decent terms with the US will allow for adoption at all. Then there is the big issue with many African countries of being so war torn that they do not even have records of people to ensure that a kid is really an orphan, making legal adoption impossible. So unless a person has the time & resources it is actually cheaper to make a homemade baby. (I have the recipe if anyone needs it.)

The best answer, in my humble little opinion, is to cure poverty first. Sounds backward, I know. But when people have things to live for, goals, @ opportunities they seem to make much different choices when it comes to reproduction.

Meagan Francis said...

Hi Ducky,

Found you through a Google alert!

It's an interesting topic for sure and I don't think there are any hard and fast answers. One thing I will say is that in the US we are already hovering right around a 2 births per couple fertility rate...so there's zero population growth right there. In many European countries the birth rates have dropped to the point where they aren't even at replacement levels, which is concerning to those governments.

As far as environmental issues go I think we have a lot of things we could do here in the US before we start talking about limiting the number of babies we have (since by and large most people aren't having big families anymore anyway...the majority, smaller families, are balancing those larger families out nicely). The standard American lifestyle is toxic to the environment and that's the case whether you've got six kids or one. In fact, I know of many families with lots of kids that live more lightly on the earth than families with one or two.

Also, people are living longer and longer. If we started limiting birth rates here, who would care for our aging population?

I do agree that access to birth control is a great first start, but I don't agree with any kind of laws limiting the number of kids a couple can have. And adoption is also a complicated issue, too complicated to be THE answer, though for many families it is an answer.

Thanks for the interesting discussion!

leslie said...

I see you winking at me, Ducky.

This is THE hot topic...the third rail of 'environmentalism'.

I have been reading some great and thoughtful posts about the topic. Your post here, and Fake Plastic Fish's post of Feb. 13th.

I try to find my 'angle' to approach the topic, and my head spins so hard it falls off.

It is central.

The longer one contemplates how messed up the environment is, with seemingly no 'fix', the closer one comes to the realization that population overabundance is the problem. The earth, if left to it's own device would do just fine.

Then you begin to examine the seemingly 'moral' dilemma of how to avoid overpopulation... and your head begins to spin, and then falls off!

See?

I will do a post. I have a sketchy draft in the queue, but sketchy at best.

I am proud to see that the topic has resurfaced.

Anonymous said...

I am very glad you are concerned about this topic. As an average citizen, I am also. Interestingly, on CNN, the latest informal poll finds that 67% of the people polled believe that overpopulation is the greatest threat to the environment.

In my view, humans will not run out of food if our numbers become too great. That's not the real problem. The problem is that humans will eliminate all other life forms in their pursuit of new food sources. What will happen is that humans will utilize all resources for the purpose of food, until an equilibrium is reached, at which point the human population will stop expanding. The problem with this, is that all other non-food animals will be pushed to extinction. Humans and their food animals (cows, chickens, etc) will do perfectly fine. It's just the non-food animals that will be wiped out, because they are not essential to human food production.

For example: in Brazil there is a rain forest that sustains many exotic life forms. Included may be animals that are not useful for food, such as a 3 toed sloth. Humans will multiply in numbers as long as new food sources are available. So in this situation, humans will clear the rainforest for the purpose of raising either crops, or cattle which humans can eat. The non-essential animals, such as the 3-toed sloth will be wiped out when their habitat is cleared to raise food, because the sloth is not needed for food. This process continues all over the globe, until all non-essential animals are replaced with food animals. So the end result is that the globe will be populated by two kinds of creatures: humans, and their food. Other animals, such as tigers, elephants, lions, which are not food will become extinct.

Interestingly, the human population problem has an impact on global warming. Currently there is a drive to create new technologies to reduce CO2 emissions. However, what these efforts fail to account for is the projected increase in human population. The increase in population, and CO2 generated per capita, will offset any efforts to use green technology to reduce CO2. Such efforts are therefore a waste of money. The core problem is human population.

What can we do about it? My suggestion is to write our leaders in governments voicing our concerns, and possibly pointing out the points I have made here.

Anonymous said...

clarification: as long as more resources become available, humans will increase in number to fill that niche. For example: when you clear more rainforest, there is more land to raise food, and more food to feed people, so people multiply in response to this. If you decrease the amount of food avaiable, humans also decrease in number. Therefore there is an equilibrium in the human population and its food supply.

Anonymous said...

there is no moral dillema with regard to this problem. Its either do something or die. Plain and simple. Also, the people who will take the brunt of overpopulation are the people in the poorest countries. it is the duty of governments to solve this problem before it is too late.

Joyce said...

One thing that is most likely gong to happen is that people will rearrange themselves onthe planet so that they are not standing on top of each other in certain places. And that is gong to require tolerance, if it's going to work. Unfortunately, I don't see a lot of that tolerance in the world right now.

It's scary thought, isn't it-all those crowded poor people showing up here, and we will need to be nice to them! Are we ready for that?

Pete Murphy said...

Ducky, I came across this post as a result of a Google Blogs Alert. Population growth is obviously a subject that deeply concerns you and some of your readers.

If I may be so bold, I think I can bring a lot to this discussion. Some introduction is in order. I am the author of a new book titled "Five Short Blasts: A New Economic Theory Exposes The Fatal Flaw in Globalization and Its Consequences for America." To make a long story short, this new theory proposes that, as population density rises beyond some optimum level, per capita consumption begins to decline. This happens because as people are forced to crowd together and conserve space, it becomes ever more impractical to own many products. Falling per capita consumption, in the face of rising productivity (which always rises), inevitably yields rising unemployment and poverty.

This theory has major ramifications for U.S. policy toward population (especially immigration policy) and trade. The implications for population policy are obvious, but why trade? It's because these effects of a high population density - unemployment and poverty - are actually imported when we attempt to engage in free trade with a nation much more densely populated than ourselves.

I could go on and on about that topic, but let me get back to the subject of your post. Population growth is actually much more complex than just birth rate and death rate, although those are two major factors. Another is life expectancy. Since life expectancy is increasing, the birth rate actually needs to be lower than the death rate in order to attain a stable population, because the new generation dies off at rate slower than the old generation. It would actually require a fertility rate of about 1.79 children per female to attain population stability in the U.S.

But a much bigger factor is in play if you want to achieve a stable U.S. population, and that's immigration. Approximately 1.12 million immigrants are admitted to the U.S. each year. Another half million arrive illegally each year. This accounts for nearly half of the U.S. population growth each year. Attaining population stability in the U.S. is impossible without reducing legal immigration by 95% (to match the rate of emigration) and without eliminating illegal immigration altogether.

Returning to the birth rate, we do need a national policy designed to achieve a fertility rate of about 1.79. The Chinese attempt to limit population growth through a "one child" policy. The U.S. could take a much more subtle, sophisticated approach by providing monetary incentives, through tax policy, to influence family size decisions. (Who cares how many children someone has, as long as the overall fertility rate is reduced to the necessary level?)This suggestion may sound offensive to some but, let's face it, the U.S. already uses tax policy in such a way. They provide a tax incentive for people to have more children. Some adjustment to that policy may be all that's required to attain the necessary fertility rate.

I'd like to address a couple of misconceptions raised in the comments above. Someone suggested that American families should consider more adoption of foreign babies as a way to help lower the birth rate. This sounds nice but, in doing so, America would actually be functioning as a population "relief valve," allowing a higher birth rate in those countries.

It was also suggested above that the elimination of poverty would help to stem population growth by reducing the birth rate in poor countries. This is a common inversion of the cause and effect relationship. Poverty actually holds a population in check. The human population barely survived until the last 2-3 centuries. A high birth rate was necessary just to off-set the high death rate due to the poverty that characterized the vast majority of humanity. Then along came the industrial revolution and the death rate plunged as such simple things as sanitation were introduced. The birth rate responded much more slowly, producing a population explosion. The same thing happens everywhere as poverty is eliminated. I'm not suggesting that people in Africa and India are getting rich, but the introduction of the most basic things (such as sanitation, mentioned above, and simple medicines) are raising life expectancy dramatically without a corresponding drop in birth rate. The elimination of poverty is the cause of the population explosion, not the cure. This is not to say that we shouldn't work to eliminate poverty, but we need to recognize that other measures need to be taken to prevent the inevitable population explosion.

Another misconception is that the U.S. is not part of the population problem. You may be surprised to learn that the U.N. ranks the U.S. with eight other countries - India, Pakistan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, Ethiopia and China - as countries that will account for fully half of the world's population growth by 2050, much of the growth in the U.S. being due to immigration. The U.S. is the only non-third world country on the list.

I could go on and on. If my theory is correct, it may very well be that if population growth goes too far, it may be high unemployment and accompanying poverty that return it to a sustainable level, even if enviromental degradation doesn't do the job first.

If you're interested in learning more, please visit my web site at OpenWindowPublishingCo.com. There you can read the preface for free and can purchase the book, if you like. (It's also available at Amazon.com.)

Ducky, I am in my 50's and my biggest hope is that young people like yourself will begin to raise enough alarm about this issue to make a real difference. Keep up the good work with your blog and don't be afraid of people's reaction to your concern about this issue. We need more people with the guts to speak out.

Pete Murphy
Author, Five Short Blasts

sanjana said...

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Beany said...

Your way of approaching this topic was classier than mine.

My classmates in India have gotten married and promptly popped out babies. The most kids anyone has is 2. After reconnecting with them, the first question is: when I'm going to have kids. After all I've been married for 6+ years. Its only natural. The craziest thing is not so long ago, I had my classmates' mode of thinking: marry and pop out babies.

I was on the fence for a while. I kept waiting for the right time, which in my case was enough money. My husband and I finally decided to not have any. We've always been open to the idea of adopting, but right now we just don't want the responsibility or pressure of dealing with a child. I'd like to do something to ease the suffering of so many unwanted children.

I've asked my classmates on why I ought to have kids and the reason is shocking: because without kids I'd be bored. I don't think that's a good reason to have kids.

Leslie said...

Haven't heard form you in a bit Ducks. Hope you are OK.

Burbanmom said...

Duck? You still out there?

Hope all is ok at your house. Thinking of you...

Anonymous said...

Zero population growth is a great idea, and this should be promoted in parts of the world with high birthrates, but not amongst environmentalists. In a democracy, majority rules. If environmentally conscious citizens don't reproduce to pass their vales on to ensure another generation of people raised to defend the environment, the place will be left to those who can easily vote such policies out of office. While environmentalism as a concept and surely will catch on, many of it's strongest proponents were those who were raised in households with a high degree of respect for the environment. It would be a shame for the most compassionate and thinking people in our nation to breed their heritage our of existence.

There is a direct correlation between birth rates and security of the banking sector. That is, once policies which ensure that people can save for their own old age can be enacted, birthrates statistically drop. (BTW this explains the birthrate gap between many European nations and the US due to Europe's strong social policies). If reliable banking and stable currencies were enacted in many of the most populous nations on earth, one would anticipate that the birth rates in those places would also drop and the quality of life for people in those nations would as well.

Anonymous said...

Sorry that should read "improve as well"

Fake Plastic Fish said...

Wow. I don't know how I never read this post and all its comments. I think I must have put it aside to read when I had more time and it got buried under the 700 other emails in my in-box.

Thanks for writing it. And thanks for beginning a great conversation.

Beth

leslie said...

Thinking about you, Ducky.

Anonymous said...

Brilliant perspective on a far bigger problem than global warming. Sometimes keeps me awake at night. The human population explosion is condeming ever more of my species to suffering. Everone has the right to reproduce but we must encourage zero or negative population growth.

WELL SAID AND THANK YOU

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